TABLE OF CONTENT
Outline
Introduction
Background of Fortune-Telling
Methods of Fortune-Telling
Astromancy
Cartomancy
Chiromancy
Crystallomancy
Tarot Card Reading
Tasseomancy
Techniques of Fortune-Telling
Ambiguous Phrases
Cold Reading
Gullibility
Hot Reading
Theories of Fortune-Telling
Confirmation Bias
Falsifiability
Forer Effect
Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
Demand Characteristics
Motivations/Causes of Fortune-Telling
Financial Gain
Social Recognition
Role Governments Plays in Monitoring Fortune-Telling
Prohibited
Regulated
Efforts by the Scientific Community
Future for Fortune-Telling
Conclusion
Bibliography
OUTLINE
Thesis Statement: The “art” of fortune-telling is based on legitimate scientific theories and techniques; however, fortune-telling is pseudoscience.
I. Introduction
II. Background of Fortune-Telling
A. Methods of Fortune-Telling
1. Astromancy
2. Cartomancy
3. Chiromancy/Cheiromancy/Palmistry/Palm-reading/Chirology/Hand Analysis
4. Crystallomancy/Scrying/Crystal Gazing
5. Tarot Card Reading
6. Tasseomancy/Tasseography/Tassology
B. Techniques of Fortune-Telling
1. Ambiguous Phrases/Rorschach clichés
2. Cold Reading
3. Gullibility
4. Hot Reading
C. Theories of Fortune-Telling
1. Confirmation Bias/Belief Bias/Belief Preservation/Belief Overkill/Hypothesis Locking/Polarization Effect/Tolstoy Syndrome/Selective Thinking/Myside Bias
2. Falsifiability
3. Forer Effect/Personal Validation Fallacy/Barnum Effect
4. Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
5. Demand Characteristics
III. Motivations/Causes of Fortune-Telling
A. Financial Gain
B. Social Recognition
IV. Role Governments Plays in Monitoring Fortune-Telling
A. Prohibited
B. Regulated
V. Efforts by the Scientific Community
VI. Future for Fortune-Telling
VII. Conclusion
INTRODUCTION
The best of seers is he who guesses well. This quote by Euripides offers insight into just how a seer really operates in the eyes of some people. Even today, many skeptics of seers (similar to fortune-tellers) consider their insights and predictions to be mere luck.
The purpose of this research paper is to disprove fortune-telling as a science or as being “true” through qualitative research that will give evidence to support this theory. The research included in this paper has been collected by means of journals, magazines, and books research collected from creditable sources. Further, this research paper will cover facts, opinions, and include statistics of relevance regarding the practice of fortune-telling (Corsini, 1999; Bartlett, 1996).
This paper will include a historical perspective on the practice of fortune-telling. The historical perspective of methods used across the world throughout history. Further, this research paper will prove that fortune-telling is a performance by a practitioner trying to take advantages of another person or client. Conversely, the “art” of fortune-telling is based on legitimate scientific theories and techniques; however, fortune-telling is pseudoscience.
BACKGROUND OF FORTUNE-TELLING
Definition
Fortune-telling is an art, gift, or practice of predicting or foreseeing the future. Fortune-telling is usually practiced by an individual using mystical or supernatural means to predict the future (Buckland, 2003; Kronzek and Kronzek, 2001; Beattie, 2003; Wilce, 2001). These individuals are also known as psychics, seers, mediums, practitioners, oracles or soothsayers (Buckland, 2003; Kronzek et al., 2001; Beattie, 2003; Wilce, 2001).
The individuals who practice fortune-telling use different methods to predict the future. There are hundreds of different methods, techniques, or theories for fortune-telling, many dating back before recorded history. Evidence indicates that forms of fortune-telling were practiced in ancient China, Egypt, Chaldea, and Babylonia as long ago as 4000 BC. Every human culture has developed its own forms of soothsaying (Buckland, 2003; Beattie, 2003).
Methods of Fortune-Telling
To understand fortune-telling, it’s necessary to discuss the different methods practitioners’ use. There are over hundreds of different methods of fortune-telling throughout history and the world (Buckland, 2003; Beattie, 2003). These methods range from telling the future from dust pattern, known as Abacomancy, to telling the future by observing animal’s actions and behaviors, known as Zoomancy (Buckland, 2003; Beattie, 2003). Another method of fortune-telling that should be noted is Ossomancy, which is the method of telling the future from bones (Buckland, 2003; Beattie, 2003). Another method of fortune-telling is Typana, the method of telling the future by the use of drums (Buckland, 2003; Beattie, 2003).
Those methods are just a few methods of telling the future. However, there are many methods that most people know today, because the use of fortune-telling is prevalent in books and movies, from the movie “Big” with Tom Hanks to the books from J.R.R. Token, author of “The Lord of The Rings” trilogy.
The best example of current references to fortune-telling is found in Harry Potter series from J.K. Rowling. The series involves events at “Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry” and the wizardry community, and these event concern “Harry Potter’ and his best friends “Ron Weasley” and “Hermione Granger” (Rowling, 1998). Harry’s most intriguing physical characteristic is his lightning bolt-shaped scar on his forehead, which he gained when the “Dark Wizard Lord Voldemort” attempted to murder baby Harry with the killing curse, Avada Kedavra, after killing Harry’s parents (Rowling, 1998). Harry is famous throughout wizardry community for being the only known person to have survived Avada Kedavra and named “the boy who lived” (Rowling, 1998). In surviving Harry caused the downfall of “Lord Voldemort,” and events that take place throughout the series involve “Lord Voldemort’s” attempts to return (Rowling, 1998). In 2001, the “Harry Potter” series switch mediums to film. The books and movies introduce fortune-telling as divination to the viewers. Divination is a course load at “Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry” (Rowling, 1998). “Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry” is school of magic in the Great Britain, training the children that possess magical abilities to become witches and wizards (Rowling, 1998). It is a co-educational secondary boarding school taking children from ages 11 to 18 (Rowling, 1998). The classes taught in divination include Arithmancy, Astrology, Crystallomancy, Palmistry, and Tasseomancy, during the student’s third through seventh year at the school (Rowling, 1998).
The most commonly known, in today’s society, are Astromancy, Cartomancy, Chiromancy, Crystallomancy, Tarot card reading, and Tasseomancy (Buckland, 2003; Beattie, 2003). These methods use every different technique to tell the future.
Astromancy is a form of fortune-telling derived from the practice of astrology (Buckland, 2003; Beattie, 2003). This Method of forecasting events comes by observing fixed stars, the sun, the moon, and planets and their interrelationships (Buckland, 2003; Beattie, 2003).
Cartomancy is a method of fortune-telling using a deck of (Buckland, 2003; Beattie, 2003). The practice of cartomancy has been observed since playing cards first came into use in Europe in the 14th century (Buckland, 2003; Beattie, 2003). Cartomancy, which used standard playing cards, was the most popular form of providing “fortune-telling” card readings in the 18th, 19th and 20th centuries (Buckland, 2003; Beattie, 2003). In recent years, the popularity of Tarot readings has diminished the popularity of the once-common Cartomancy readings that uses standard playing cards (Buckland, 2003; Beattie, 2003). According to some traditions, a deck that is used for Cartomancy should not be used for any other purpose (Buckland, 2003; Beattie, 2003). Cartomancers generally feel that the deck should be treated as a tool and cared for accordingly (Buckland, 2003; Beattie, 2003). Some practitioners also feel the cards should never be touched by anyone other than their owner (Buckland, 2003; Beattie, 2003).
Chiromancy is known by the names Cheiromancy, Palmistry, Palm-reading, Chirology, and Hand Analysis, and it is a method of fortune-telling using the palm of the client (Buckland, 2003; Kronzek et al., 2001; Rowling, 1999; Beattie, 2003). The practitioner analyzes the lines of a person’s palm and the size, shape, and the texture of their hands (Buckland, 2003; Kronzek et al., 2001; Rowling 1999; Beattie, 2003). The practice is found all over the world, with numerous cultural variations (Kronzek et al., 2001; Beattie, 2003).
Crystallomancy, is also known as Scrying and Crystal Gazing, and it is a method fortune-telling using a medium, most commonly a reflective surface or translucent body, to aid perceived psychic abilities such as clairvoyance (Buckland, 2003; Rowling, 1999; Kronzek et al., 2001; Beattie, 2003). The media often used to “see” are water, polished precious stones, crystal balls, or mirrors (Buckland, 2003; Beattie, 2003). Scrying is actively used by many cultures and belief systems and is not limited to one tradition or ideology (Buckland, 2003; Rowling, 1999; Kronzek et al., 2001; Beattie, 2003).
Tarot Card Reading is a method of fortune-telling using Tarot cards (Buckland, 2003; Beattie, 2003). Tarot revolves around the belief that the cards can be used to gain insight into the current and possible future situations of the client (Buckland, 2003; Farley, 2006; Beattie, 2003). Tarot was invented in the early fifteenth century at the court of Duke Maria Visconti of Milan, a despotic ruler with a love for astrology and board games (Bucklan, 2003; Farley, 2006; Beattie, 2003).
Tasseomancy is known as Tasseography and Tassology, is a method of fortune-telling that in western traditions interprets patterns in tea leaves (Buckland, 2003; Rowling, 1999; Kronzek et al., 2001; Beattie, 2003). The term also refers to the reading of coffee grounds, especially in the Middle Eastern tradition, or the reading of wine sediments (Buckland, 2003; Kronzek et al., 2001; Beattie, 2003). The details of how it is read are different from China to India, but the method of reading is the same (Buckland, 2003; Kronzek et al., 2001; Beattie, 2003). The person is told to drink the liquid of the glass, leaving a small amount at the bottom of the cup (Buckland, 2003; Rowling, 1999; Kronzek et al., 2001; Beattie, 2003). Then the client is told to swirl the cup around and turn it over up side down and tap the bottom of the cup three times (Buckland, 2003; Rowling, 1999; Kronzek et al., 2001; Beattie, 2003). The practitioner then picks up the cup and examines the pattern of tealeaves that remain on the bottom of the cup (Buckland, 2003; Rowling, 1999; Kronzek et al., 2001; Beattie, 2003).
Techniques of Fortune-Telling
The practitioners of fortune-telling use all kinds of techniques and tricks to fool their clients. The techniques used range from psychological to the technological and scientific. It is important to note, methods proven to work by the scientific community for legitimate research and treatment, are found throughout case studies (Wood, Nezworski, Lilienfeld, Garb 2003; Hughes, Behanna, Signorella, 2001). The most notable techniques are ambiguous phrases or Rorschach clichés, Cold Readings, Gullibility, and Hot Readings.
Practitioners, who use ambiguous phrases or Rorschach clichés on their clients, do so because these phrases normally have several possible meanings or interpretations to the client (Corsini, 1999; Bartlett, 1996). A practitioner can have several statements ready before the reading would even start. The practitioner would insert whichever statement would apply with what the client is seeking to know. Wittenborn and Sarason noted that Rorschach interpreters resorted to a similar tactic, delivering “ambiguous phrases or esoteric Rorschach clichés (Corsini, 1999; Bartlett, 1996) which can be given almost any specific interpretation which subsequent developments may require,” (Wood et al., 2003).
Cold Reading, also known as profiling, is a technique used to convince a person that the practitioner knows more about the subject than they actually do. Cold reading is done without prior knowledge of a person. The lack of prior information is not an obstacle for many fortune-tellers. A practiced cold reader can quickly obtain a great deal of information about the subject by carefully analyzing the person’s body language, clothing or fashion, hairstyle, gender, sexual orientation, religion, race or ethnicity, level of education, manner of speech, place of origin, etc. (Wood et al., 2003). Cold readers commonly employ high probability guesses about the subject, quickly picking up on signals from their subjects as to whether their guesses are in the right direction or not, and then emphasizing and reinforcing any chance connections the subjects acknowledge while quickly moving on from missed guesses (Wood et al., 2003).
Gullibility refers to the state of being easily deceived or cheated. There are several causes of gullibility. The person may be naive, have some form of learning difficulty or may display gullibility as a result of wishful thinking (Bartlett, 1996). The practitioner uses wishful thinking or faith to con the client or person in believing ambiguous phrases to be true (Bartlett, 1996).
The technique of hot reading is the most basic for gathering information from the client. The technique involves someone, the practitioner or another person, asking questions to the client or audience in general to gather information to be used later in the performance (Westrup, 2003; Carroll, 2005). Most of the people will forget the fact that they already told the practitioner this information due to the fact that the questions were asked to the general audience, and frequently the inquirer is a third party (Westrup, 2003; Carroll, 2005). A good example of hot reading is when practitioners researching their clients (Westrup, 2003; Carroll, 2005). Some palm readers might go through a client’s purse or have an accomplice do so, in order to gather information about the client (Westrup, 2003; Carroll, 2005). “A further example of hot reading is the uses of technology. At least one faith healer, Peter Popoff, has pretended to get messages from God when he was really getting messages from his wife via an earpiece. Mrs. Popoff got her information from cards that the believers fill out when they attend the faith healing exhibition” (Randi, 1989).
Psychology Theories of Fortune-Telling
The practitioners of fortune-telling use various kinds of psychology theories to fool their clients. These theories are found throughout case studies (Corsini, 1999; Bartlett, 1996). Each practitioner has his/her own style and particular theories; however, some are used more often. The most notable theories practiced are Confirmation Bias, Decision Theory, Falsifiability, Forer Effect, Self-Fulfilling Prophecy, and Demand Characteristic that fortune-tellers put into use.
Confirmation Bias is a psychological theory known as Belief Bias, Belief Preservation, Belief Overkill, Hypothesis Locking, Polarization Effect, Tolstoy Syndrome, Selective Thinking, and Myside Bias. This theory is a tendency to search for, or interpret, new information in a way that confirms one’s preconceptions and avoid information and interpretations, which contradict prior beliefs (Corsini, 1999; Nevid, 2003; Bartlett, 1996). It is a type of cognitive bias and represents an error of inductive inference or as a form of selection bias toward confirmation of the hypothesis under study or disconfirmation of an alternative hypothesis (Corsini, 1999; Nevid, 2003; Bartlett, 1996).
Fortune-tellers play off of their ability to assert truths that cannot be disproved (Corsini, 1999; Bartlett, 1996). Falsifiability asserts the theory that to be falsifiable it must be logically possible to make an observation or do a physical experiment that would show the assertion to be false. Some philosophers and scientists, most notably Karl Popper an Austrian philosopher, have asserted that no empirical hypothesis, proposition, or theory can be considered scientific if no observation could be made which might contradict it (Corsini, 1999; Bartlett, 1996).
A theoretical practice known as the Forer Effect, also known as Personal Validation Fallacy or Barnum Effect, is a theory that when observed individuals will give high accuracy ratings to descriptions of their personality that supposedly are tailored specifically for them, but are in fact vague and general enough to apply to a wide range of people, (Wood et al., 2003; Hughes et al., 2001; Morris, 2001; Nevid, 2003). The Forer Effect can provide a partial explanation for the widespread acceptance of some pseudoscience such as astrology and fortune-telling, as well as many types of personality tests. P.T. Barnum is credited with saying “There is a sucker born every minute,” (Wood et al., 2003; Hughes et al., 2001; Morris, 2001; Nevid, 2003).
Self-Fulfilling Prophecy is a theory that a prediction is made, then evokes new or change behavior, which makes the prediction become true (Corsini, 1999; Nevid, 2003; Bartlett, 1996). For the practitioner, self-fulfilling prophecy offers some proof that the prediction was actually true when it was made (Corsini, 1999; Nevid, 2003; Bartlett, 1996). In other words, the prophecy declared as truth may influence people’s behavior, either through fear or logical confusion, so that their reactions ultimately fulfill the false prophecy (Corsini, 1999; Nevid, 2003; Bartlett, 1996).
Demand characteristics is term used in psychology experiments to describe a cue that makes participants aware of what the experimenter expects to find or how participants are expected to behave (Corsini, 1999; Bartlett, 1996). Demand characteristics can change the outcome of an experiment because participants will often change their behavior to conform to the experimenters’ expectations (Corsini, 1999; Bartlett, 1996). It’s also the effect a particular environment has on behavior, a factor that fortune-teller exploit. Further, these individuals give “cues” to influence the client to buy-in on the prediction (Corsini, 1999; Bartlett, 1996).
Fortune-telling has been around before recorded history, and throughout recorded history. The oracle at Delphi was built in the third millennium BC; the Greeks dedicated the complex to Apollo (Littleton, 2002). This complex focused on fortune-telling, but an offering needed to be made before anyone could receive his or her fortune (Littleton, 2002). The methods of fortune-telling are vast and the techniques and theories they use maybe different, however, the outcome is always the same, to predict the future.
The typical topics that fortune-tellers make predictions on include future romantic, financial, and childbearing prospects (Kronzek et al., 2001). This basic need for people to know the unknown is what feeds fortune-telling. This need give practitioners a reason to go into and stay in business. Women consult fortune-tellers more than men: some indication of this comes from the profusion of advertisements for commercial fortune-telling services in magazines aimed at women, while such advertisements appear virtually unknown in magazines aimed specifically at men. These basic motivations fuel fortune-telling, but they are not the only motivations for practitioners. The two main motivations for fortune-telling are financial gain and social recognition.
MOTIVATIONS/CAUSES OF FORTUNE-TELLING
Financial Gain
All fortune-tellers use scientific theories and techniques to make their predictions, and con the public out of their hard earned money. “The psychic business is a multimillion-dollar business, and that’s not just from old ladies calling at 11 at night,” says Sci Fi Executive Vice President of Original Programming Mark Stern (Becker, 2006).
Most fortune-tellers are frauds (Alvarado, 1999). They know they possess no psychic talent or “psi” (Alvarado, 1999). Psi is the term parapsychologists use to generically refer to all kinds of psychic phenomena, experiences, or events that seem to be related to the psyche, or mind, and which cannot be explained by established physical principles. They make a living off consumers’ presumptions, preying on the ignorance, gullibility, and desperation of the public (Alvarado, 1999; Barlett, 1996). Gullibility is “wishful thinking” by the client (Barlett, 1996). The fortune-teller uses these “flaws” for commercial gain.
In San Francisco, the Board of Supervisors recently roiled its resident psychics by proposing legislation that would require them to obtain permits and post rates, along with establishing consumer complaint lines (Kaminer, 2004). One self-proclaimed “Goddess of Light and Direction,” also known as “Dionysia,” complained to the San Francisco Examiner that the city was “capitalizing on folks trying to make a living.” But one of Dionysia’s colleagues told the Examiner she supported the local regulation of psychics, because the city should “crack down on the people who give us a bad reputation,” (Kaminer, 2004).
Some fortune-tellers in Florida reacted similarly when the county commissioners of Palm Beach decided to allow fortune-tellers to practice unlicensed. One local seer, Madame Rose, warned the commissioners that they would “open Palm Beach to every con artist,” (Kaminer, 2004). The con artist would prey on the public to make a quick buck. The con artist use scientific theories and scientific techniques to make them seem more creditable.
Some fortune-tellers charge large sums of money for a reading, and those fortune-tellers have no problem getting it from gullible consumers. These amounts can range from 25 dollars to 1100 dollars (Kirschbaum, 2006; Rineheart, 2006; Randi, 2006). In New York, a tarot card reading was given to remove evil spirits for the sum of 375 dollars (Randi, 2006). Another tarot card reading, the fortune-teller charged 275 dollar to banish evil spirits (Randi, 2006). The same psychic charged 100 dollars for a client to bring her wandering boyfriend to a reading (Randi, 2006). This psychic was caught in a sting operation by local police and charged with various offenses (Randi, 2006).
There are numerous hotline psychics all over the world, each of these hot lines charging different rates (Lazarus, 2000), (Hooks, 2007). These telephone psychics can charge from 4.99 a minute to 9.95 for seven minutes with each additional minute costing a dollar a minute (Lazarus, 2000; Hooks, 2007). The rates vary with the location of the hotlines (Lazarus, 2000; Hooks, 2007).
However, the telephone hotlines have fallen in number due to the Internet; (Lazarus, 2000). Replacing the 900 numbers are the psychic websites (Lazarus, 2000). There are literally hundreds of websites providing psychic readings (Lazarus, 2000). The online consultations taking place through e-mail or online chats (Lazarus, 2000). The charges vary from 50 dollars to twice that amount (Lazarus, 2000).
Some fortune-tellers can make large sums of money practicing the trade. However, the growing trade offers fortune-tellers various types of social recognition. This social recognition is evidenced through TV appearances, TV shows, TV advertisements, radio shows, radio advertisements, telephone hot lines, websites, or books. Practitioners of fortune-telling capitalize on humans’ weaknesses, not just for money, but for social recognition.
Social Recognition
Some fortune-teller seeks fame or social recognition as well as financial gain. This is gained through TV appearances, radio shows, websites, advertisements, and books. The face of these practitioners, seen appearing all over the place, encourages, the public begins recognize them, and invite them to have a psychic reading by them.
Interestingly, some psychic are recognize by some famous athletes. For example, Azra Shafi-Schelierini, an ex-model, is known as the unofficial psychic for major league baseball (Gray, 2007). She has clients from both New York baseball teams, Mets and Yankees (Gray, 2007). These clients include Ron Darling, Duaner Sanchez, and Rick Peterson from the New York Mets (Gray, 2007). The clients from the New York Yankees include General Manger Brian Cashman, Jason Giambi, and Derek Jeter (Gray, 2007). With clients as big as some of these baseball players, Azra receives more clients because of who she gives psychic readings too.
Another example of reading to the famous people is Judi Hoffman a New York based psychic (Kirschbaum, 2006). Hoffman is a favorite of Lisa and Brittny Gastineau (Kirschbaum, 2006). Lisa is a New York-based socialite and was married to NFL legend Mark Gastineau. And her daughter, Brittny is an American model, socialite, and reality television personality. Hoffman also does a monthly radio show for Sirius radio and dreams of hosting her own calling in show (Kirschbaum, 2006).
However, Carmen Harra another New York based psychic has some famous people of her own (Kirschbaum, 2006). Her clients have included Jennifer Lopez, an American actress, singer, songwriter, dancer, and fashion designer (Kirschbaum, 2006), and, Candice Bergen who is an Academy Award-nominated and Emmy Award-winning American actress and former fashion model (Kirschbaum, 2006). Harra wrote a book title Decoding Your Destiny in spring of 2006 (Kirschbaum, 2006). She also reads for Pamela Hayes, a lawyer and fund-raiser for Hillary Clinton (Kirschbaum, 2006).
Some psychics become famous on their own, like Sylvia Browne, self-proclaimed psychic and best selling author, a regular on The Montel Williams Show and Larry King Live (Radford, 2006). She has been on The Montel Williams Show at least ten times (Fraser, 2007). Sylvia has been a guest on Coast to Coast AM with George Noory, a paranormal-promoting radio show (Radford, 2006).
Allison DuBois is another example of how a psychic can become famous. She is an attractive blond who helps the District Attorney’s office and Phoenix police department with cases (Dempsey, 2006; Fraser, 2007). The NBC’s show Medium is based on her real-life experiences (Dempsey, 2006; Fraser, 2007). However, the show leaves DuBois’ life and becomes fictional with the character’s psychic ability to being that the character and sees and talks to dead people. However, DuBois proclaims that she does have extrasensory perception, ESP (Fraser, 2007). ESP is the ability to receive information through paths other than the natural senses; sight, smell, sound, taste, and touch (Fraser, 2007).
Phil Jordan used to support himself by running two funeral homes, a restaurant, and a non-denominational church (Becker, 2006). However this changed when he was featured on a new psychic show on Court TV (Becker, 2006). His psychic work has been profiled on six episodes of Psychic Detectives on Court TV (Becker, 2006). After the airing of these episodes, Jordan was called on to help with 400 more case in 2005 (Becker, 2006). This income was enough to help Jordan to sell the funeral homes and shut down the restaurant (Becker, 2006).
Court TV and NBC is not the only television network to air psychic base TV shows. Biography Channel, Women’s Entertainment, Sci Fi Channel, WB Network, and A&E are airing psychic based show too (Becker, 2006; Dempsey, 2006).
The most famous psychic is John Edwards (Becker, 2006). He built a multimedia empire with his TV show Crossing Over with John Edwards (Becker, 2006). The show became a hit in early 2000 before crossing into daytime syndication where it stayed until 2004. However, John is moving to the Women’s Entertainment Channel and starting a new show (Becker, 2006).
ROLE GOVERNMENTS PLAY IN MONITORING FORTUNE-TELLING
The financial gain and social recognition benefits of fortune-telling are the main reason why the state and local governments started to get involved with prohibiting and regulating fortune-telling (Kaminer, 2004). These statutes are in place to protect the public from con artists (Kaminer, 2004).
Prohibited
State’s statutes prohibiting fortune-telling vary from state to state, county to county, and city to city on the topic of fortune-telling (Kaminer, 2004). For instance, the state’s statute maybe required to obtain licenses, or it maybe needed to practice unlicensed, or statutes forbid fortune-telling to practice at all (Kaminer, 2004). Law-makers pass these statutes to protect the public from the “con artist” fortune-tellers.
In a related example, in New York, three psychics were arraigned in July 2006 on fortune-telling and other charges following a “sting” operation in Queens, New York. Queens District Attorney Richard A. Brown concurred in his statement on the fortune-telling business. “As claimed psychics, the defendants themselves apparently suffered vision deficiencies, as they could not see themselves being prosecuted on fraud charges in their futures” (Randi, 2006). Further, Sabrina Martell, “Dorothy Miller, and Rose Miller, all of Astoria, were arrested and charged with various infractions ranging from fourth-degree grand larceny, to first-degree scheme to defraud, petty larceny, and fortune-telling” (Randi, 2006). If convicted, these women could be sentenced to one to four years in prison (Randi, 2006). The statute in New York for fortune-telling reads as follows;
New York State law, S 165.35: A person is guilty of fortune-telling when, for a fee or Compensation which he directly or indirectly solicits or receives, he claims or pretends to tell fortunes, or holds himself out as being able, by claimed or pretended use of occult powers, to answer questions or give advice on personal matters or to exorcise, influence or affect evil spirits or curses; except that this section does not apply to a person who engages in the afore described conduct as part of a show or exhibition solely for the purpose of entertainment or amusement.
In Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and North Carolina, fortune-telling is prohibited by state statutes (Kaminer, 2004). These statutes make fortune-telling for profit or financial gain a crime. If convicted of the offence the defendant could be sentenced to jail time.
The truth is that there are three reasons why more people are charged with this crime (Randi, 2006). First, there are not presently enough cops in place to handle this problem (Randi, 2006). Second, fortune-telling is only a class B misdemeanor, maximum penalty of three months, with the distinct possibility of only a scolding and no jail time. Finally, no one cares if stupid people are taken in and relieved of their cash in this manner, certainly not police who usually have much more pressing matters to attend to (Randi, 2006).
This prohibition of fortune-telling is not the norm for all fifty states. Some States only regulate fortune-telling due to the law-enforcement’s inability to control fortune-telling (Randi, 2006). This inability is due to the lack of manpower to operate the prohibitions (Randi, 2006), not due to lack of consensus that fortune-telling is a form of fraud by the legal system in this country.
Regulated
“Advocates of regulating fortune-tellers and other psychics claim they only want to protect gullible people from the con artists Madame Rose of Palm Beach may have had in mind – psychics who intend to defraud, by offering to take your money and “cleanse” it of some curse or by promising that ridding yourself of a large sum will help you lose weight or gain romance and whatever else you desire” (Kaminer, 2004).
In Arkansas and Mississippi, fortune-telling is regulated by local governments, which are empowered by the state to regulate or “suppress” fortune-telling, along with other businesses deemed not respectable, like dance halls and poolrooms (Kaminer, 2004). In Louisiana, localities may regulate or “restrict” fortune-tellers under local government (Kaminer, 2004). In Massachusetts, they may only practice their profession if they receive a license by a city or town (Kaminer, 2004). In California, a state appellate court rightly struck down prohibitions on fortune-telling under the First Amendment, in a 1984 case, but localities may still choose to license it (Kaminer, 2004).
Government agencies are not the only ones trying to protect the public from the con artists known as fortune-tellers; the scientific community is trying to prove fortune-telling as pseudoscience. The scientific community is trying to prove fortune-telling to be false and to protect the public.
EFFORTS BY THE SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY
For hundreds of years, researchers have tested the idea of fortune-telling (O’Keeffe, Wiseman, 2005). These tests have contained mixed results and provoked a considerable amount of methodological debate (O’Keeffe et al., 2005). The question that starts the entire test is, is fortune-telling real? The major problem that these tests hold is the lack of control of information (O’Keeffe et al., 2005). This is because fortune-telling is an interaction between two people, and the fortune-teller, well trained in psychological techniques, can gain information through call signs, signals or cues, from the client (O’Keeffe et al., 2005). “Perception may or may not represent reality; magic is proof of that” (Randi, 2006).
Further, fortune-tellers are attacked by the scientific community who says the psychic powers are nothing more then clever trickery (Westup, 2003). Certain scientists write journals articles to prove fortune-telling as a pseudoscience. These articles are published in psychological journals with case studies to prove the authors thesis. The scientists state that fortune-teller is no more then con artist that uses scientific theories and techniques to appear to know more then they really done.
Forer Effect is a theory that when observed individuals will give high accuracy ratings to descriptions of their personality that supposedly are tailored specifically for them, but are in fact vague and general enough to apply to a wide range of people (Wood et al., 2003; Hughes et al., 2001; Morris, 2001; Nevid, 2003). In a landmark study, Forer applied his theory to a group of forty students, seventh male and twenty-three female (Wood et al., 2003). Forer asked the student to rate the accuracy of a personality sketch (Wood et al., 2003). The outcome of the students’ responses had an average rating of “very good” (Wood et al., 2003; Hughes et al., 2001; Morris, 2001; Nevid, 2003). Forty percent of the students rated the sketch a “perfect fit” to their personality (Wood et al., 2003; Hughes et al., 2001; Morris, 2001; Nevid, 2003). However, the personality questionnaire had a catch; each student was given the same personality sketch drafted by using horoscopes from an astrology book (Wood et al., 2003). “The students had gullibly accepted this boiler-plate personality description as if it was applied to them uniquely as individuals” (Wood et al., 2003).
In another example of how gullibility plays into the “con artist” techniques of fortune-telling. P.T. Barnum, a great showman, stated, “There’s a sucker born every minute.” P.T. Barnum and psychologist B.T. Forer, who both asserted that people believe what they want to, and disregard the rest that do not apply to their personality (Morris, 2002). Barnum and Forer are two famous skeptics who questioned the true abilities of fortune-tellers.
Fortune-tellers have long used Barnum Statements or the Forer Effect, along with a few other techniques; to create a false impression that they know the personality, the past, and even the future of people they’ve never met (Wood et al., 2003). One of the most common technique practices is cold reading, or known as profiling. Skillful cold readers apply the Barnum principle in many ways, for example by spicing their reading with statements like these: “You’re working hard, but you have the feeling that your salary doesn’t fully reflect you efforts”; and “You think that somewhere in the world you have a twin, someone who looks just like you” these statement appear personal and individualized, but in fact true of many people (Wood et al., 2003). If a fortune-teller misses on a statement they can fix the prediction. Through dialogue between the fortune-teller and the client, an ambiguous phrase or Rorschach clichés can be transformed into prediction suited for the client (Tedlock, 2001).
Ray Hyman, a retired professor of psychology at the University of Oregon, says mediums like John Edward, host of the TV series Crossing Over with John Edwards, usually practice cold reading (Westup, 2003). During a typical cold reading, the medium bombards audience members with statements about their personal lives and about spirits said to be present in the room (Westup, 2003). However, psychic like Edward have an understanding that most people visit a psychics grieving for a dead friend or family member (Westup, 2003). One key to fortune-tellers effectiveness is the vagueness of the guesses that mediums toss out (Westup, 2003). Studies have shown that the same cold reading given privately to each member of a group of test subject will elicit positive responses from each person, much like the Forer Effect (Westup, 2003). Hyman said, “Most people have some kind of father figure in their life or know someone whose first name begins with an M,” (Westup, 2001). Mediums focuses on individual in the audience, taking special note of visual cues; clothing, posture, facial expressions (Westup. 2003). From those visual cues the medium size up each individual’s situation and tailors his/her guesses to fit it (Westup, 2003).
Hyman also states that audience member’s fall into a display of demand characteristic (Westup, 2003). Hyman says séances often collaborate in a self-contrived deception; they lie (Westup, 2003). In every group situation it has what psychologists call demand characteristic; aspects that indicate what behaviors are expected of the test subjects (Westup, 2003). Hyman has posed as a psychic to prove his thesis in case studies and to show how a test subject displays demand characteristic (Westup, 2003).
In March 5, 2001, Michael O’Neill, a New York marketing manger who attended a taping of Crossing Over with John Edwards, charged that the show had misrepresented him (Westup, 2003). O’Neill said the program was edited so that clips of him nodding yes were inserted after Edward’s guesses to which O’Neill remembered saying no to the guess (Westup, 2003).
The fortune-teller’s technique called hot reading is not used as much as cold reading due to the fact that most of the time a psychic does not know who will be visiting on any given day. However, there are examples of fortune-tellers using this technique. On the TV program Dateline, John Edward was shown at a séance guessing correctly that a man’s name was Anthony and that his father had died (Westup, 2003). Dateline produced evidence that Edward had a conversation with Anthony before the show (Westup, 2003).
True psychics are those people who have some level of high-functioning psi, demarcate processes or causation associated with cognitive or physiological activity that fall outside of conventional scientific boundaries (Alvarado, 1999). Few people hold the power of the psi phenomena and have true psychic abilities (Alvarado, 1999). Most Fortune-tellers are frauds, and they know they possess no psychic talent or “psi” (Alvarado, 1999). However, they still take the money from the public for predictions they cannot perform. So, they make a living off consumers’ presumptions, preying on the ignorance, gullibility, and desperation of the public (Alvarado, 1999).
Chris A. Roe designed a study where fortune-tellers were replaced by a computer (Roe, 1996). Through Roe’s research, he discovers evidence that fortune-tellers use fortunes from a pre-formed assay of “Things to say” (Roe, 1996). This pre-formed array needs to be large and comprehensive enough in range to cover most contingent events in client’s lives (Roe, 1996). However, this pre-formed array must be brief enough to be memorized and recalled by the practitioner with only limited aides memories to hand (Roe, 1996). Also this pre-formed array needs to be general enough to be true for most people (Roe, 1996).
Marcello Truzzi, a sociologist at Eastern Michigan University, says “the statements made by psychics are rarely challenged” (Fraser, 2007). “For example, The Montel Williams Show has often highlighted the work of psychic sleuth Sylvia Browne” (Fraser, 2007). Truzzi did a study of Browne’s claims made of ten different episodes of The Montel Williams Show, he found that the information Browne provided was too vague to be verified or played no useful role in a criminal case (Fraser, 2007). These statements were made by Marcello Truzzi in his book; The Blue Sense: Psychic Detectives and Crime (Fraser, 2007).
The scientific community has fought fortune-telling as long as fortune-telling has been around. Scientists will continue to fight this battle to disprove fortune-telling. The fact is that fortune-telling will continue to grow as long as people still believe in its validity and value, and governmental officials continue to “ignore” the “con artist” consequences created by fortune-tellers. As long as the need is there someone will be there to fill this need, but that is why the problem will continue.
FUTURE FOR FORTUNE-TELLING
Since the 1970s in the United States beliefs in the supernatural have remained stable or increased (Hughes et al., 2001). Young people are the most likely to visit a fortune-teller, people under the age of thirty (Branswell, 1998). Women outnumber men by the number of two to one that visit fortune-tellers (Branswell, 1998). The popularity of fortune-telling is growing with a number of TV shows being aired. Sylvia Browne, a self-proclaimed psychic, has been featured on The Montel Williams Show and Larry King Live numerous times (Radford, 2006).
Some psychics have moved out of the shop and into mass media. John Edward, James Van Praagh, and Sylvia Browne all have hosted TV shows or been involved wit a TV show. These TV hosts have attracted a huge following (Westup, 2003) and this following has made the hosts huge amounts of amount of money and fame. A major benefit to moving out of the shop is TV shows can be edited to show all the right predictions and none of the misses, making psychics more believable to the public.
Another example of the popularity of the profession, telephone consultations with psychics grew in popularity through the 1990s. These psychics can charge caller’s telephone account at very high rates for these consultations.
The technology of the Internet has promoted fortune-telling to move to the Web with a psychic reading through a psychic’s website. The Internet features a whole crop of psychics. These psychics can reach customers globally to make money through psychic readings. And, websites cut down on the overhead for fortune-telling, making the practitioner richer. The cut in overhead is due to the fact the practitioners have no need to have a shop or storefront. The shop cost has rent electricity, water, and furnishing the shop with books, tables, fortune-telling items, chairs, bookcases, and lights. However, some practitioner will in turn put some of this cut in overhead into advertisement.
This trend of the fortune-telling industry growing will continue until something major happens. This event could be a scientific break that show fortune-telling for what it truly is, a pseudoscience; or, people stop believing in fortune-telling. Scientific studies are few and far between so when a study is completed the finding not being shared on a mass level to the public. The findings are being kept in psychological journal or buried in a psychological website. A lay person has to know what he/she is seeking to find an article about these case studies. There is nothing to stop fortune-telling from growing. People will have to change the way they think before the trend will changes.
CONCLUSION
The “art” of fortune-telling is based on legitimate scientific theories and techniques; however, fortune-telling is still pseudoscience when compared to verifiable scientific professions. The scientific techniques used by the practitioner are ambiguous phrases or Rorschach clichés, Cold Readings, Gullibility, and Hot Readings. These techniques are used to aid the practitioner in seeming they know more then they really do. The scientific theories practiced are Confirmation Bias, Decision Theory, Falsifiability, Forer Effect, Self-Fulfilling Prophecy, and Demand Characteristic that fortune-tellers put into use. Again, these theories are used to aid the practitioner in seeming to know more then they really do. The motivations of fortune-telling are financial gain and social recognition. These two causes keep the fortune-telling industry growing. However, governments continue to try to monitor fortune-telling. Various governmental agencies are trying to protect the public by prohibiting and regulating fortune-telling. The efforts by the scientific community continue to try to disprove fortune-telling. They are trying to disprove it through studies and journal articles to prove the scientist thesis. The future for fortune-telling is that it will continue to grow in popularity. This trend is the direct effect from hotline psychics, TV shows featuring psychics, and websites. This trend will continue to be until a major change in peoples’ belief systems and ways of thinking take.
As a result of this paper, the interactive project that will continue into the second part of this course will be an interactive fortune-telling game. This game will continue the study of Chris A. Roe where a group of subjects where place in front of computers and given psychic reading without a fortune-teller present. This game with allow the subject to select an item from the list and then gain a reading for an array of pre-formed fortunes. This array will need to be researched to gain enough information to make this array general enough to be true for most people using this game.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Alvarado, Carlos, S. (1999). Shopping for Miracles: A Guide to Psychics & Psychic Powers, The Journal of Parapsychology, 63, 3.
Bartlett. (1996). Roget’s Thesaurus. Little, Brown and Company Inc.
Beattie, Antonia. (2003). Fortune Teller’s Dictionary: Everything You Need to Know About the World of Fortune-telling: Comprehensive Explanations of Psychic Potential, Intuition Development, and Divination Practices. California, Thunder Bay Press.
Becker, Anne. (2006). Psyched About Psychics, Broadcasting and Cable. V136; 14.
Branswell, Brenda. (1998). Looking Ahead, Maclean, Vol. 110, 38.
Buckland, Raymond. (2003). The Fortune-Telling Book: The Encyclopedia of Divination and Soothsaying. Detroit, MI, Omnigraphics.
Corsini, Raymond J. (1999). The Dictionary of Psychology. Ann Arbor, MI: Braun-Brumfield.
Dempsey, John. (2006). Cable Vision: Psychics will draw more Auds, Variety. V403; 15.
Farley, Helan. (2006). The Evolution of the ‘Mother’ in Tarot, Hecate, 68-87.
Fraser, Stephen. (2007). Psych Out, Current Science. V92; 10.
Gray, Geoffrey. (2007). Gaze into Her Crystal Baseball, New York, v40; 18.
Hooks, Pam. (2007). I was Addicted to Psychics- And it Drove me into Debt, Redbook. V208; 68.
Hughes, Matthew, Behanna, Robert, Signorella, Margaret, L. (2001). Perceived Accuracy of Fortune Telling and Belief in the Paranormal, The Journal of Social Psychology, 141, 1.
Kaminer, Wendy. (2004). The First Amendment is for Fortune-tellers, Too, Free Inquiry Magazine, Vol. 23 Number 3.
Kronzek, Allen Zola and Kronzek Elizabeth. (2001). The Sorcerer’s Companion. New York: Broadway Books.
Kirschbaum, Susan. (2006). Psychic Warfare, New York. V39; 18.
Lazarus, David. (2000, March 25). An Unpredictable Business Professional Psychics Face Same Challenges as Other Entrepreneurs. The San Francisco Chronicle.
Littleton, C. Scott. (2002). Mythology: The Illustrated Anthology of World Myth and Storytelling. London: Ducan Baird Publishers.
Morris, Kelly. (2002). Future Perfect, The Lancet, 359, 9316.
Nevid, Jeffrey, S. (2003). Psychology: Concepts and Applications. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company.
O’Keeffe, Ciaràn, Wiseman, Richard. (2005). Testing Alleged Mediumship: Methods and Results, British Journal of Psychology, 96, 165-179.
Radford, Benjamin. (2006). Art Bell’s Show Broadcasts Sylvia Browne Failure about Mine Tragedy, The Skeptical Inquirer. V30; 8.
Randi, James. (2006). Psychics Prosecuted– Never Saw it Coming. Skeptic, 12; 6-7.
Rineheart, Elisa L. (2006). She Reads You, Grand Forks Herald. March 14, 2006; A3.
Roe, Chris A. (1996). Clients’ Influence in the Selection of Elements of a Psychic Reading, The Journal of Parapsychology, v60; 43-70.
Rowling, J. K. (1998). Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone. New York: Scholastic Inc.
Rowling, J. K. (1999). Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets. New York: Scholastic Inc.
Rowling, J. K. (1999). Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban. New York: Scholastic Inc.
Tedlock, Barbara. (2001). Divination as a Way of Knowing: Embodiment, Visualisation, Narrative, and Interpretation. Folklore, 112, 189-197.
Westup, Hugh. (2003). Dead Wrong, Current Science, 89, 8.
Wilce, James M. (2001). Divining Troubles, or Divining Troubles? Emergent and Conflicictual Dimensions of Bangladeshi Divination. Anthropological Quarterly, 74, 190-200.
Wood, James M. Nezworski, M. Teresa, Lilienfeild, Scott O., & Garb, Howard N. (2003). The Rorschach Inkblot Test, Fortune Tellers, and Cold Reading. Research Library Core, 27, 29-33.
Recent Comments